Supply and demand remain at a stalemate, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract seeing a slight increase of 0.30% in the afternoon session, awaiting macro guidance. [SMM Tin Afternoon Review]

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): closed at 264,520 yuan/mt in the afternoon session, up slightly by 0.3%. The intraday fluctuation range was 262,680~264,700 yuan/mt, with the amplitude narrowing to 0.95%. Trading activity was sluggish. Trading volume stood at 46,200 lots, and open interest was 23,500 lots (a decrease of 950 lots from the previous day), reflecting strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors.

LME tin contract: temporarily quoted at $33,400/mt, up by 0.42%. It has recently been trading within the range of $31,000~$35,000/mt, pressured by the rebound of the US dollar and global trade frictions.

Smelting bottlenecks: Some smelters have turned to African ore sources, but the long transportation cycle limits short-term increases in production. The operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions are low, and the growth rate of refined tin production is slow.

Escalation of trade frictions: The US's 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico took effect on August 1, and the EU plans to retaliate against 72 billion euros worth of goods, increasing global supply chain risks.

Strengthening of the US dollar: The US June CPI YoY was 2.7%, exceeding expectations. The probability of a US Fed interest rate cut in September has fallen to 50%, and the US dollar index has risen to 98.63, pressuring metal pricing.

Short-term sideways movement: The support level for the most-traded SHFE tin contract is 262,000 yuan/mt (previous low), and the resistance level is 266,900 yuan/mt (high on July 14).